MVV Maastricht 1-0 Den Bosch — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.5
No
50%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.51
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.91
6+ Goals
9%
8.42
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.51 — our 27% vs market 17.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.14
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1
19%
5.35
X/2
9%
6.3
X/X
14%
5.34
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
16%
3.95
2/X
6%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.9pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
62%
-12.2pp
50%
BTTS No
38%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -7%
1.77/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.49
+39% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
310 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 80%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
14.3 Crosses 17.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Den Bosch
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.15 xG 1.43
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
329 Passes 337
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 3-2 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
27.01.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 3-3 HT 2-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
22.10.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-1 HT 2-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
11.03.2022 Den Bosch Den Bosch 3-1 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
15.11.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
12.05.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-1 HT 1-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
1-0
AWAY Den Bosch
0.94 xG 1.29
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 8
257 Passes 395
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 30
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Den Bosch
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht squeezed past Den Bosch 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 33%) promised a tight game; MVV Maastricht found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 43% of the ball to Den Bosch's 57%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.94 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Den Bosch led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for MVV Maastricht and 2.00 for Den Bosch.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Den Bosch?

MVV Maastricht 1-0 Den Bosch in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Den Bosch?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 40%, draw 26%, Den Bosch 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MVV Maastricht) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✗ Over 2.5
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