Willem II 2-0 VVV-Venlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 23 Mar 2024

Willem II
2-0 HT 1-0
VVV-Venlo
📅23/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Willem II vs VVV-Venlo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
17%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.55
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
27%
2.89
6+ Goals
12%
8.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.68
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
18.7
X/1
22%
3.61
X/2
5%
14.7
X/X
9%
6.91
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.35
2/2
7%
11.25
2/X
6%
19.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.35 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
66%
-6.5pp
23%
Draw
19%
+3.9pp
17%
Away Win
14%
+2.6pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.7pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Willem II v VVV-Venlo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 17%
-7% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +13%
2.07/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.83
+8% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
384 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 76%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
25.9 Crosses 16.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6

Willem II vs VVV-Venlo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
2W-2D-2L
AWAY VVV-Venlo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.25 xG 1.01
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
375 Passes 377
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.11.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-3 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
27.05.2023 Willem II Willem II 2-2 HT 2-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
23.05.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 3-2 HT 2-2 Willem II Willem II HOL2
09.04.2023 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
11.11.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 0-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
10.01.2021 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-1 HT 0-1 Willem II Willem II HOL

Willem II 2-0 VVV-Venlo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
2-0
AWAY VVV-Venlo
0.82 xG 0.44
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 2
371 Passes 400
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 7
15 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Willem II vs VVV-Venlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II beat VVV-Venlo 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Willem II as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Willem II had 49% of the ball to VVV-Venlo's 51%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 0.82 to 0.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Willem II and 1.50 for VVV-Venlo.

What was the final score of Willem II vs VVV-Venlo?

Willem II 2-0 VVV-Venlo in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs VVV-Venlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Willem II 60%, draw 23%, VVV-Venlo 17%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Willem II) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Willem II) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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