Afturelding 0-3 Thor Akureyri — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - 1st Division, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.51
Over 2.5
49%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.43
No
45%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
36%
+14.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
64%
-14.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
66%
-10.6pp
45%
BTTS No
34%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Afturelding EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Thor Akureyri EU Bookmakers 33%
-17% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -20%
1.21/2.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/2.18
-34% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -22%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
434 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Afturelding
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Thor Akureyri
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
10 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 8
5 Yellow Cards 1
09.05.2024 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri 4-2 HT 1-2 Afturelding Afturelding İZL1
16.07.2023 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri 1-3 HT 1-2 Afturelding Afturelding İZL1
12.05.2023 Afturelding Afturelding 1-0 HT 0-0 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri İZL1
27.08.2022 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri 0-0 HT 0-0 Afturelding Afturelding İZL1
24.06.2022 Afturelding Afturelding 4-1 HT 2-0 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri İZL1
06.08.2021 Afturelding Afturelding 2-0 HT 0-0 Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri İZL1
POST-MATCH Afturelding vs Thor Akureyri
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thor Akureyri swept aside Afturelding 3-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Afturelding at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Afturelding had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Afturelding and 1.00 for Thor Akureyri.

What was the final score of Afturelding vs Thor Akureyri?

Afturelding 0-3 Thor Akureyri in the Iceland - 1st Division on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Afturelding vs Thor Akureyri?

Before kick-off our model rated a Afturelding win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Afturelding 44%, draw 26%, Thor Akureyri 30%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Afturelding) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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