Queensland Lions 1-2 Moreton City Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - Queensland NPL, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
31%
3.17
Over 2.5
69%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.39
No
36%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
14%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
35%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
6%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
59%
-3.7pp
24%
Draw
20%
+3.6pp
21%
Away Win
21%
+0.1pp
31%
Under 2.5
28%
+3.3pp
69%
Over 2.5
72%
-3.3pp
64%
BTTS Yes
68%
-3.9pp
36%
BTTS No
32%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queensland Lions EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreton City Excelsior EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+38% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.5 Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queensland Lions
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Moreton City Excelsior
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
14.04.2024 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior 2-4 HT 0-3 Queensland Lions Queensland Lions AVNPL
POST-MATCH Queensland Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreton City Excelsior squeezed past Queensland Lions 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Queensland Lions at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (69%), both teams to score (64%) came in.

What was the final score of Queensland Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior?

Queensland Lions 1-2 Moreton City Excelsior in the Australia - Queensland NPL on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queensland Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a Queensland Lions win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Queensland Lions 55%, draw 24%, Moreton City Excelsior 21%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Queensland Lions) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Queensland Lions) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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