Bahia 1-2 Cuiaba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 13 Jul 2024

Bahia
1-2 HT 0-1
Cuiaba
📅13/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bahia vs Cuiaba Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
31%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.86
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.09
6+ Goals
8%
19.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 32% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.14
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.15
X/1
14%
3.82
X/2
10%
10.6
X/X
11%
4.46
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2 EV+ ✓
15%
8.96
2/X
7%
16.35
Value flag · 2/2 at 8.96 — our 15% vs market 7.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
57%
-12.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
31%
Away Win
18%
+13.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.9pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Cuiaba — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +10%
1.65/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.19
-3% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +34%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
403 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
21.5 Crosses 17.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6

Bahia vs Cuiaba Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
0W-3D-1L
AWAY Cuiaba
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
0.73 xG 1.15
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
416 Passes 267
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-3 HT 0-1 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
08.07.2023 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-1 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
22.11.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
08.08.2021 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1

Bahia 1-2 Cuiaba — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-2
AWAY Cuiaba
0.92 xG 1.17
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
609 Passes 321
91% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 22
27 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Cuiaba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cuiaba squeezed past Bahia 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bahia at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bahia had 64% of the ball to Cuiaba's 36%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.92 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Cuiaba led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bahia and 1.25 for Cuiaba.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Cuiaba?

Bahia 1-2 Cuiaba in the Brazil - Serie A on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Cuiaba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Bahia 44%, draw 25%, Cuiaba 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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