Kagoshima United 1-1 ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.6
Over 2.5
47%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.5
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.74
6+ Goals
10%
26.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.3pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
59%
-6.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
41%
+6.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.3pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 31%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.83/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.16
+34% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kagoshima United
0W-1D-0L
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.02.2024 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-1 HT 0-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kagoshima United
1-1
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kagoshima United vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kagoshima United and ThespaKusatsu Gunma couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Kagoshima United at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Kagoshima United had 49% of the ball to ThespaKusatsu Gunma's 51%, shots finished 10-13.

What was the final score of Kagoshima United vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Kagoshima United 1-1 ThespaKusatsu Gunma in the Japan - J2 League on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kagoshima United vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kagoshima United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kagoshima United 43%, draw 26%, ThespaKusatsu Gunma 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kagoshima United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kagoshima United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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