Arsenal Tula 1-0 Chernomorets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.59
Over 2.5
35%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
41%
-6.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.5pp
65%
Under 2.5
59%
+6.4pp
35%
Over 2.5
41%
-6.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.6pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Chernomorets EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.00/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.31
-13% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
342 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 74%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.0 Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal Tula
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Chernomorets
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 2-0 HT 0-0 Chernomorets Chernomorets RUS1
12.08.2023 Chernomorets Chernomorets 2-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal Tula
1-0
AWAY Chernomorets
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 0
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arsenal Tula vs Chernomorets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal Tula edged past Chernomorets 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Arsenal Tula made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Arsenal Tula had 39% of the ball to Chernomorets's 61%, shots finished 8-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.00 for Chernomorets.

What was the final score of Arsenal Tula vs Chernomorets?

Arsenal Tula 1-0 Chernomorets in the Russia - FNL on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal Tula vs Chernomorets?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chernomorets win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Arsenal Tula 35%, draw 28%, Chernomorets 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Chernomorets) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chernomorets) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →