Arsenal Tula 2-0 Chernomorets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
49%
+0.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.3pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Chernomorets EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.93/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.60
+33% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal Tula
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Chernomorets
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Chernomorets Chernomorets 2-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal Tula
2-0
AWAY Chernomorets
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Arsenal Tula vs Chernomorets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal Tula got the better of Chernomorets 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal Tula as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Arsenal Tula had 51% of the ball to Chernomorets's 49%, shots finished 15-9.

What was the final score of Arsenal Tula vs Chernomorets?

Arsenal Tula 2-0 Chernomorets in the Russia - FNL on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal Tula vs Chernomorets?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal Tula win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Arsenal Tula 50%, draw 28%, Chernomorets 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal Tula), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal Tula) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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