Milan 3-1 Monza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Berlusconi Cup, 13 Aug 2024

Milan
3-1 HT 1-1
Monza
📅13/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.33
2-3 Goals
35%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
8.96
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.33 — our 30% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.86
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.8
X/1
16%
3.75
X/2
8%
11.9
X/X
16%
6.35
2/1
5%
21.0
2/2
13%
8.92
2/X
4%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
63%
-14.0pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.1pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+8.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.8pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Monza EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
416 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Monza
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.87 xG 1.11
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
364 Passes 414
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2024 Monza Monza 4-2 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
17.12.2023 Milan Milan 3-0 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTA
08.08.2023 Monza Monza 1-1 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTBK
18.02.2023 Monza Monza 0-1 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
22.10.2022 Milan Milan 4-1 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTA
08.10.2015 Monza Monza 0-3 HT 0-3 Milan Milan HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
3-1
AWAY Monza
1.23 xG 0.85
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
518 Passes 305
94% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 18
POST-MATCH Milan vs Monza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan got the better of Monza 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Milan had 61% of the ball to Monza's 39%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.23 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Milan and 1.00 for Monza.

What was the final score of Milan vs Monza?

Milan 3-1 Monza in the Italy - Berlusconi Cup on 13/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Monza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Milan 49%, draw 26%, Monza 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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