Monza 4-2 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 18 Feb 2024

Monza
4-2 HT 2-0
Milan
📅18/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Monza vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.04
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
53%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2.99
2-3 Goals
47%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.81
6+ Goals
9%
16.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
7.9
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
25.5
1/X
6%
16.0
X/1
8%
9.53
X/2
24%
3.79
X/X
14%
4.6
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
23%
2.19
2/X
6%
15.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 6% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
21%
-0.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
53%
Away Win
53%
-0.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monza v Milan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 57%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +4%
1.15/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/1.08
+0% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -5%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
261 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 78%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
18.3 Crosses 17.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Monza vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Milan
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.95 xG 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
420 Passes 355
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Milan Milan 3-0 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTA
08.08.2023 Monza Monza 1-1 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTBK
18.02.2023 Monza Monza 0-1 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
22.10.2022 Milan Milan 4-1 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTA
08.10.2015 Monza Monza 0-3 HT 0-3 Milan Milan HAZ
20.07.2014 Monza Monza 0-2 HT 0-0 Milan Milan HAZ

Monza 4-2 Milan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
4-2
AWAY Milan
1.75 xG 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
389 Passes 398
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Monza vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monza got the better of Milan 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Milan at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Monza had 50% of the ball to Milan's 50%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 1.75 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Monza and 2.33 for Milan.

What was the final score of Monza vs Milan?

Monza 4-2 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Monza 21%, draw 26%, Milan 53%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Milan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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