Lazio 1-2 Bologna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.38
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
26%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.29
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
5.18
6+ Goals
7%
32.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
27%
3.61
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.3
X/1
14%
4.96
X/2
7%
5.86
X/X
14%
3.49
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
14%
4.59
2/X
8%
13.5
Value flag · 1/1 at 3.61 — our 27% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
38%
+7.3pp
28%
Draw
31%
-3.4pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-3.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.9pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Bologna EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -11%
1.22/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.09
-21% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +6%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
252 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 81%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
15.8 Crosses 15.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Bologna
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.10 xG 0.75
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
469 Passes 434
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2023 Bologna Bologna 1-0 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
11.03.2023 Bologna Bologna 0-0 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
19.01.2023 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTK
14.08.2022 Lazio Lazio 2-1 HT 0-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
12.02.2022 Lazio Lazio 3-0 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
03.10.2021 Bologna Bologna 3-0 HT 2-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
1-2
AWAY Bologna
1.12 xG 1.39
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
396 Passes 537
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
25 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Bologna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna nicked a narrow win over Lazio 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lazio at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lazio had 44% of the ball to Bologna's 56%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.12 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lazio and 0.83 for Bologna.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Bologna?

Lazio 1-2 Bologna in the Italy - Serie A on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Bologna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lazio 46%, draw 28%, Bologna 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lazio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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