Frosinone 0-3 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
40%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.91
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.09
6+ Goals
12%
10.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.91 — our 27% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.98
1/2
11%
22.9
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
13%
7.23
X/2
10%
4.62
X/X
15%
5.04
2/1
7%
33.5
2/2
19%
2.66
2/X
5%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
28%
+4.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
40%
Away Win
46%
-6.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Frosinone EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 50%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
1.48/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/0.93
+56% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -25%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 82%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
15.5 Crosses 19.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Frosinone
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Roma
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.89 xG 1.68
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
285 Passes 487
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.10.2023 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTA
09.09.2020 Frosinone Frosinone 1-4 HT 0-4 Roma Roma HAZ
23.02.2019 Frosinone Frosinone 2-3 HT 1-2 Roma Roma İTA
26.09.2018 Roma Roma 4-0 HT 3-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTA
30.01.2016 Roma Roma 3-1 HT 1-1 Frosinone Frosinone İTA
12.09.2015 Frosinone Frosinone 0-2 HT 0-1 Roma Roma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Frosinone
0-3
AWAY Roma
1.50 xG 1.81
43% Ball Possession 57%
25 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 2
302 Passes 428
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
35 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Frosinone vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma swept aside Frosinone 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 40% — and on the day Roma made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Frosinone had 43% of the ball to Roma's 57%, shots finished 25-13, expected goals 1.50 to 1.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Frosinone and 3.00 for Roma.

What was the final score of Frosinone vs Roma?

Frosinone 0-3 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Frosinone vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Frosinone 33%, draw 27%, Roma 40%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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