Motor Lublin 1-0 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 13 Sep 2024

📅13/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
27%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.88
6+ Goals
10%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 30% vs market 27.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.48
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
18%
5.13
X/2
10%
5.83
X/X
11%
4.33
2/1
10%
29.0
2/2
12%
4.17
2/X
10%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
39%
+4.8pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.9pp
27%
Away Win
33%
-5.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.3pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.51/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.18
-65% / +134% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
24.5 Crosses 17.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
1-0
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.33 xG 1.44
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
366 Passes 500
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
23 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin squeezed past Gornik Zabrze 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Motor Lublin as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 44% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 56%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.33 to 1.44.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?

Motor Lublin 1-0 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motor Lublin win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 44%, draw 29%, Gornik Zabrze 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motor Lublin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motor Lublin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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