Arouca 0-3 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 13 Sep 2024

Arouca
0-3 HT 0-1
Sporting CP
📅13/09/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arouca vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
7.95
Draw
19%
5.15
Away Pick
62%
1.26
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
2.51
Over
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
20%
5.39
2-3
39%
2.0
4-5
27%
2.68
6+
14%
6.58
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.39 — our 20% vs market 14.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
17.2
1/2
6%
22.3
1/X
6%
24.45
X/1
7%
22.7
X/2
18%
3.47
X/X
6%
8.7
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
37%
1.42
2/X
8%
24.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Sporting CP win — 62% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
10%
+9.6pp
19%
Draw
16%
+3.2pp
62%
Away Win
74%
-12.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.7pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 79%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
0.83/2.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.13/0.78
-38% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -8%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
276 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 450 · 84%
12.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.8
12.4 Crosses 21.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Arouca vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sporting CP
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.65 xG 2.26
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
309 Passes 455
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 34
10 Crosses 29
5 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Arouca Arouca 0-3 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
08.10.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-1 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
16.04.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-1 HT 0-1 Arouca Arouca POR
24.01.2023 Arouca Arouca 1-2 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP PORLC
29.10.2022 Arouca Arouca 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
05.03.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR

Arouca 0-3 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
0-3
AWAY Sporting CP
0.23 xG 3.21
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 25
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
309 Passes 542
84% Pass Accuracy 91%
4 Box Touches 51
5 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP swept aside Arouca 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Arouca had 38% of the ball to Sporting CP's 62%, shots finished 6-25, expected goals 0.23 to 3.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Arouca and 1.67 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Sporting CP?

Arouca 0-3 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Arouca 19%, draw 19%, Sporting CP 62%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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