Real Oviedo 3-2 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 13 Oct 2024

Real Oviedo
3-2
Almeria
📅13/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Real Oviedo vs Almeria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.74
Over 2.5
35%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.91
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.01
6+ Goals
8%
18.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 37% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.86
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.2
X/1
15%
4.52
X/2
9%
7.14
X/X
15%
4.21
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
10%
5.47
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.9pp
33%
Draw
28%
+5.5pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.5pp
65%
Under 2.5
54%
+11.0pp
35%
Over 2.5
46%
-11.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.9pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Oviedo v Almeria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Oviedo EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 30%
+2% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
1.25/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.25
+1% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
23.4 Crosses 16.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7

Real Oviedo vs Almeria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Oviedo
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Almeria
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.62 xG 1.26
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
266 Passes 343
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.01.2022 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo 2-0 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
20.08.2021 Almeria Almeria 2-1 HT 2-1 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo İS2
01.05.2021 Almeria Almeria 2-2 HT 2-0 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo İS2
30.11.2020 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo 1-2 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
16.01.2020 Almeria Almeria 2-0 HT 0-0 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo İS2
01.11.2019 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo 0-0 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2

Real Oviedo 3-2 Almeria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Oviedo
3-2
AWAY Almeria
59% Ball Possession 41%
22 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 0
363 Passes 240
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Real Oviedo vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Oviedo squeezed past Almeria 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Oviedo as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Real Oviedo had 59% of the ball to Almeria's 41%, shots finished 22-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Real Oviedo and 1.33 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Real Oviedo vs Almeria?

Real Oviedo 3-2 Almeria in the Spain - 2nd Division on 13/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Oviedo vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Oviedo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Real Oviedo 41%, draw 33%, Almeria 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Oviedo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Oviedo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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