Burundi 0-2 Burkina Faso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 13 Oct 2024

📅13/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.34
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
49%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
1.78
Over
39%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
36%
3.02
2-3
39%
1.78
4-5
18%
3.87
6+
7%
17.1
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.02 — our 36% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
17%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
16%
+5.9pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.8pp
49%
Away Win
60%
-11.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.3pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burundi EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Burkina Faso EU Bookmakers 64%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
0.29/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/0.86
-100% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +82% / -22%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
231 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 82%
9.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
16.0 Crosses 14.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burundi
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Burkina Faso
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.88 xG 2.60
40% Ball Possession 60%
15 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
203 Passes 345
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 2
10.10.2024 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso 4-1 HT 3-1 Burundi Burundi AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burundi
0-2
AWAY Burkina Faso
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Burundi vs Burkina Faso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burkina Faso got the better of Burundi 2-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Burkina Faso as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Burundi had 50% of the ball to Burkina Faso's 50%, shots finished 9-12.

What was the final score of Burundi vs Burkina Faso?

Burundi 0-2 Burkina Faso in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 13/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burundi vs Burkina Faso?

Before kick-off our model rated an Burkina Faso win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Burundi 22%, draw 29%, Burkina Faso 49%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burkina Faso), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Burkina Faso) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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