Burkina Faso 4-1 Burundi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 10 Oct 2024

📅10/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.49
Draw
31%
3.8
Away
25%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.75
Over 2.5
38%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.0
6+ Goals
9%
18.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 35% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
63%
-18.8pp
31%
Draw
23%
+8.1pp
25%
Away Win
15%
+10.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
53%
+8.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
47%
-8.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.3pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burkina Faso EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Burundi EU Bookmakers 18%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +25% / +25%
1.74/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/2.12
+15% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -23%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
382 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 75%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
17.6 Crosses 11.0
0.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burkina Faso
4-1
AWAY Burundi
2.60 xG 0.88
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
345 Passes 203
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 14
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Burkina Faso vs Burundi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burkina Faso swept aside Burundi 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Burkina Faso as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Burkina Faso had 60% of the ball to Burundi's 40%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 2.60 to 0.88.

What was the final score of Burkina Faso vs Burundi?

Burkina Faso 4-1 Burundi in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 10/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burkina Faso vs Burundi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burkina Faso win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Burkina Faso 44%, draw 31%, Burundi 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burkina Faso) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Burkina Faso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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