13/10/2024
·
00:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-2
2nd Score
1-2
Napier vs Wellington Phoenix Res Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
27%
Over Pick
73%
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
10%
2-3
34%
4-5
36%
6+
20%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 73% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
74%
19%
Draw
15%
27%
Away Win
11%
63%
BTTS Yes
64%
37%
BTTS No
36%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Napier v Wellington Phoenix Res — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Napier
EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY
Wellington Phoenix Res
EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+20% /
+20%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+43%
/
+39%
57%
Ball Possession
43%
20
Total Shots
8
9
Shots on Target
4
7
Corners
2
406 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
322 · 78%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
2.6
Napier vs Wellington Phoenix Res Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Napier
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Wellington Phoenix Res
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
The Meetings
14.10.2023
Wellington Phoenix Res
0-1
HT 0-0
Napier
YZLBÖL
0-1
HT 0-0
Napier
YZLBÖL
POST-MATCH
Napier vs Wellington Phoenix Res
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Napier and Wellington Phoenix Res shared the points in a 1-1 draw.
Our pre-match lean was Napier at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (63%) landed while over 2.5 goals (73%) missed.
What was the final score of Napier vs Wellington Phoenix Res?
Napier 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Res in the New Zealand - Bölgesel on 13/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Napier vs Wellington Phoenix Res?
Before kick-off our model rated a Napier win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Napier 54%, draw 19%, Wellington Phoenix Res 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Napier), Over 2.5 went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Napier)
✗ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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YZLBÖL
More New Zealand - Bölgesel
13 Oct 2024