America Mineiro 3-2 Ituano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 13 Nov 2024

📅13/11/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.88
No
59%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.64
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.32
6+ Goals
9%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 29% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
62%
-6.9pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.3pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.1pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Ituano EU Bookmakers 20%
+3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.61/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.53
+3% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
363 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
21.7 Crosses 15.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Ituano
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.74 xG 1.09
68% Ball Possession 32%
17 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
431 Passes 179
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.07.2024 Ituano Ituano 0-0 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
3-2
AWAY Ituano
0.81 xG 0.92
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 15
10 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 8
490 Passes 224
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs Ituano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro edged past Ituano 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had America Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, America Mineiro had 65% of the ball to Ituano's 35%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 0.81 to 0.92.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs Ituano?

America Mineiro 3-2 Ituano in the Brazil - Serie B on 13/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs Ituano?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 55%, draw 23%, Ituano 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (America Mineiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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