Derby County 4-0 Portsmouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 13 Dec 2024

Derby County
4-0 HT 3-0
Portsmouth
📅13/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs Portsmouth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.6
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.22
6+ Goals
9%
21.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.74
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.25
X/1
16%
4.27
X/2
10%
7.61
X/X
14%
4.19
2/1
10%
28.0
2/2
13%
6.18
2/X
6%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-2.9pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.1pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Portsmouth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 28%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.39/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.68
-3% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -46%
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
360 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 70%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
19.4 Crosses 15.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5

Derby County vs Portsmouth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Portsmouth
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.37 xG 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
250 Passes 295
68% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.04.2024 Portsmouth Portsmouth 2-2 HT 1-2 Derby County Derby County İN1
16.09.2023 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
29.04.2023 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 0-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
18.11.2022 Portsmouth Portsmouth 0-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İN1
12.08.2015 Portsmouth Portsmouth 2-1 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNLK
21.04.2012 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-2 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Derby County 4-0 Portsmouth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
4-0
AWAY Portsmouth
1.82 xG 0.58
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 3
313 Passes 303
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Portsmouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County ran out comfortable winners over Portsmouth 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Derby County had 50% of the ball to Portsmouth's 50%, shots finished 17-3, expected goals 1.82 to 0.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Derby County and 1.17 for Portsmouth.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Portsmouth?

Derby County 4-0 Portsmouth in the England - Championship on 13/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Portsmouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Derby County 45%, draw 26%, Portsmouth 29%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derby County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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