Melbourne Victory (K) 1-0 Adelaide United (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 13 Dec 2025

Melbourne Victory (K)
1-0 HT 0-0
Adelaide United (K)
📅13/12/2025 · 🕒08:50 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2025/2026

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Adelaide United (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.66
Draw
18%
3.8
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.21
Over 2.5
65%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.63
No
40%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
11%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
55%
+0.3pp
18%
Draw
22%
-4.0pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+3.9pp
35%
Under 2.5
41%
-6.1pp
65%
Over 2.5
59%
+6.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
57%
+2.7pp
40%
BTTS No
43%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne Victory (K) v Adelaide United (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory (K) EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United (K) EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.15/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.46
-7% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +98% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
334 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 71%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
21.7 Crosses 16.3
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.0

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Adelaide United (K) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Adelaide United (K)
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.43 xG 1.25
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
310 Passes 274
73% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
29.03.2025 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 2-1 HT 0-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW
02.11.2024 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 2-3 HT 1-2 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
10.03.2024 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 1-4 HT 0-2 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
04.11.2023 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 2-0 HT 2-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW
21.12.2018 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 3-2 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
28.10.2018 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW

Melbourne Victory (K) 1-0 Adelaide United (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
1-0
AWAY Adelaide United (K)
1.32 xG 0.32
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
237 Passes 273
68% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 9
16 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory (K) vs Adelaide United (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory (K) squeezed past Adelaide United (K) 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne Victory (K) as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melbourne Victory (K) had 48% of the ball to Adelaide United (K)'s 52%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.32 to 0.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory (K) had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Melbourne Victory (K) and 1.17 for Adelaide United (K).

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory (K) vs Adelaide United (K)?

Melbourne Victory (K) 1-0 Adelaide United (K) in the Australia - W-League on 13/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory (K) vs Adelaide United (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory (K) 56%, draw 18%, Adelaide United (K) 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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13 Dec 2025
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