Brisbane Roar 3-2 Newcastle Jets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.61
Over 2.5
52%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.41
No
46%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.67
2-3 Goals
45%
2.01
4-5 Goals
21%
2.57
6+ Goals
11%
5.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.2
1/2
5%
24.3
1/X
6%
12.45
X/1
13%
5.72
X/2
9%
6.13
X/X
11%
5.97
2/1 EV+ ✓
10%
23.0
2/2
18%
3.51
2/X
8%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+3.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-4.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
35%
+12.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
65%
-13.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
67%
-12.9pp
46%
BTTS No
33%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -7%
1.48/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.81
-19% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
364 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
17.5 Crosses 18.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Newcastle Jets
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.55 xG 0.70
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
346 Passes 399
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.04.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 3-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
27.01.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 4-0 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
16.12.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 0-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
03.04.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
03.02.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
21.05.2021 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-2 HT 0-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
3-2
AWAY Newcastle Jets
2.12 xG 2.26
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
391 Passes 464
88% Pass Accuracy 90%
26 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane Roar squeezed past Newcastle Jets 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Brisbane Roar as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 46% of the ball to Newcastle Jets's 54%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 2.12 to 2.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brisbane Roar had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.17 for Newcastle Jets.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets?

Brisbane Roar 3-2 Newcastle Jets in the Australia - A-League on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 43%, draw 25%, Newcastle Jets 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brisbane Roar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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