Perth Glory 3-4 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 14 Jan 2024

Perth Glory
3-4 HT 1-2
Wellington Phoenix
📅14/01/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.33
Over 2.5
58%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.56
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
26%
2.81
6+ Goals
14%
7.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.36
1/2
8%
22.6
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
17%
6.82
X/2
9%
4.98
X/X
11%
5.46
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
18%
2.82
2/X
6%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
32%
+8.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
36%
Away Win
44%
-7.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
39%
+3.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
61%
-3.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.8pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Perth Glory v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 48%
+14% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.38/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/1.42
+15% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +21%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 83%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
18.5 Crosses 15.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perth Glory
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.02 xG 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
384 Passes 442
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-1 HT 1-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
28.01.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-2 HT 2-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
23.12.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
13.04.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-1 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
26.03.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-1 HT 1-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
30.05.2021 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-2 HT 1-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS

Perth Glory 3-4 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perth Glory
3-4
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
0.82 xG 1.23
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
357 Passes 500
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 28
21 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix squeezed past Perth Glory 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 24% / 36%) promised a tight game; Wellington Phoenix found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Perth Glory had 44% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 56%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.82 to 1.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Perth Glory and 1.67 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix?

Perth Glory 3-4 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Perth Glory win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Perth Glory 40%, draw 24%, Wellington Phoenix 36%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Perth Glory) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Perth Glory) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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