Çorum FK 2-1 Tuzlaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.11
2-3 Goals
47%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
15.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.15
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
15.7
X/1
16%
3.76
X/2
9%
9.63
X/X
11%
4.95
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.3
2/2
8%
7.88
2/X
9%
16.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.3 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.9pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.9pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.1pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Çorum FK EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Tuzlaspor EU Bookmakers 23%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +24%
1.79/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.45
+45% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +21%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
402 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 71%
11.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
19.2 Crosses 10.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Çorum FK
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Tuzlaspor
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
2.00 xG 1.18
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
239 Passes 416
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.08.2023 Tuzlaspor 0-3 HT 0-2 Çorum FK Çorum FK T1L
29.03.2015 Çorum FK Çorum FK 0-4 HT 0-1 Tuzlaspor S3-1
09.11.2014 Tuzlaspor 5-1 HT 2-0 Çorum FK Çorum FK S3-1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Çorum FK
2-1
AWAY Tuzlaspor
0.86 xG 1.34
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 3
329 Passes 280
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Çorum FK vs Tuzlaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Çorum FK nicked a narrow win over Tuzlaspor 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Çorum FK as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Çorum FK had 53% of the ball to Tuzlaspor's 47%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.86 to 1.34 — on chances, Tuzlaspor could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Tuzlaspor led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Çorum FK and 3.00 for Tuzlaspor.

What was the final score of Çorum FK vs Tuzlaspor?

Çorum FK 2-1 Tuzlaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Çorum FK vs Tuzlaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Çorum FK win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Çorum FK 50%, draw 27%, Tuzlaspor 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Çorum FK), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Çorum FK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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