Gaziantep FK 0-1 Fenerbahçe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
5.91
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
58%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.84
6+ Goals
11%
7.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
11.7
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
21.0
1/X
6%
19.9
X/1
6%
15.5
X/2
19%
3.55
X/X
13%
7.25
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
31%
1.62
2/X
6%
19.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.0 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
14%
+3.2pp
25%
Draw
19%
+6.0pp
58%
Away Win
67%
-9.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.3pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gaziantep FK EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 71%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +15%
1.21/2.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.70/0.92
+14% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / -24%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
257 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 450 · 83%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.0
14.8 Crosses 20.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gaziantep FK
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Fenerbahçe
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.58 xG 2.64
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
212 Passes 438
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 33
14 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
13.08.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-1 HT 2-1 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
15.01.2023 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 1-2 HT 0-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
29.04.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3-2 HT 1-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
13.12.2021 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 3-2 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
12.04.2021 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3-1 HT 0-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
19.12.2020 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 3-1 HT 2-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gaziantep FK
0-1
AWAY Fenerbahçe
0.62 xG 2.62
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 10
187 Passes 410
65% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 44
13 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe nicked a narrow win over Gaziantep FK 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gaziantep FK had 36% of the ball to Fenerbahçe's 64%, shots finished 6-20, expected goals 0.62 to 2.62 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fenerbahçe's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Gaziantep FK and 2.17 for Fenerbahçe.

What was the final score of Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?

Gaziantep FK 0-1 Fenerbahçe in the Turkey - Super League on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Gaziantep FK 17%, draw 25%, Fenerbahçe 58%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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