Como 1-2 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 14 Jan 2025

Como
1-2 HT 0-0
Milan
📅14/01/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
44%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.44
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.28
6+ Goals
12%
12.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.37
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
24.3
1/X
6%
14.2
X/1
14%
8.59
X/2
10%
4.35
X/X
12%
4.91
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.45
2/X
7%
13.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.3 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
24%
+8.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
44%
Away Win
51%
-6.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.4pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Como EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 55%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -13%
1.15/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.18
+13% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -32%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 83%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
15.5 Crosses 17.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Como
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Milan
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
03.05.2003 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Como Como İTA
15.12.2002 Como Como 1-2 HT 1-2 Milan Milan İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Como
1-2
AWAY Milan
1.43 xG 1.30
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
322 Passes 308
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Como vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan edged past Como 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Como had 51% of the ball to Milan's 49%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.43 to 1.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Como and 2.00 for Milan.

What was the final score of Como vs Milan?

Como 1-2 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Como vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Como 32%, draw 25%, Milan 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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