Mlada Boleslav 5-2 Dukla Prag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 14 Jan 2025

📅14/01/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.97
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.76
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.97 — our 28% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.57
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.25
X/1
13%
4.49
X/2
7%
7.52
X/X
13%
5.71
2/1
9%
22.1
2/2
14%
5.21
2/X
11%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.0pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.2pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.3pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mlada Boleslav EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Dukla Prag EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
2.13/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.49
+25% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
297 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mlada Boleslav
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Dukla Prag
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
293 Passes 261
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 33
9 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.11.2024 Dukla Prag Dukla Prag 0-1 HT 0-0 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav ÇEK
21.04.2019 Dukla Prag Dukla Prag 2-2 HT 0-1 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav ÇEK
09.11.2018 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav 0-0 HT 0-0 Dukla Prag Dukla Prag ÇEK
19.05.2018 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav 1-0 HT 1-0 Dukla Prag Dukla Prag ÇEK
24.11.2017 Dukla Prag Dukla Prag 4-1 HT 2-1 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav ÇEK
07.04.2017 Dukla Prag Dukla Prag 1-2 HT 0-1 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mlada Boleslav
5-2
AWAY Dukla Prag
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Prag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mlada Boleslav cruised past Dukla Prag 5-2. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mlada Boleslav as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Mlada Boleslav had 49% of the ball to Dukla Prag's 51%, shots finished 18-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mlada Boleslav had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.17 for Dukla Prag.

What was the final score of Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Prag?

Mlada Boleslav 5-2 Dukla Prag in the Friendlies on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Prag?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mlada Boleslav win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Mlada Boleslav 44%, draw 29%, Dukla Prag 27%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mlada Boleslav) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mlada Boleslav) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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