Noordwijk 1-0 BVV Barendrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 14 Jan 2025

📅14/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
2.97
6+ Goals
13%
9.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.67
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
12.95
X/1 EV+ ✓
21%
4.7
X/2
9%
7.63
X/X
15%
5.14
2/1
4%
23.4
2/2
13%
5.27
2/X
7%
13.4
Value flag · X/1 at 4.7 — our 21% vs market 16.7%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-0.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.3pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Noordwijk EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY BVV Barendrecht EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
397 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Noordwijk
0W-1D-0L
AWAY BVV Barendrecht
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
23.11.2024 BVV Barendrecht BVV Barendrecht 2-2 HT 2-0 Noordwijk Noordwijk HOLTW
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Noordwijk
1-0
AWAY BVV Barendrecht
3.23 xG 1.65
48% Ball Possession 52%
27 Total Shots 20
11 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
316 Passes 376
67% Pass Accuracy 72%
43 Box Touches 20
27 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Noordwijk vs BVV Barendrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Noordwijk squeezed past BVV Barendrecht 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Noordwijk as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Noordwijk had 48% of the ball to BVV Barendrecht's 52%, shots finished 27-20, expected goals 3.23 to 1.65 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Noordwijk's control.

What was the final score of Noordwijk vs BVV Barendrecht?

Noordwijk 1-0 BVV Barendrecht in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Noordwijk vs BVV Barendrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Noordwijk win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Noordwijk 47%, draw 25%, BVV Barendrecht 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Noordwijk) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Noordwijk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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