AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 14 Jan 2025

📅14/01/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.37
6+ Goals
11%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 28% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.76
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
13%
5.64
X/2
14%
5.6
X/X
13%
4.71
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
18%
3.72
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+1.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.5pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 40%
-48% / -48% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +30% / +30%
0.81/2.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.99
-100% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +116%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
337 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 80%
14.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
28.1 Crosses 9.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 4.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Ajax
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.48 xG 1.37
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
326 Passes 484
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.12.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
25.02.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
08.10.2023 Ajax Ajax 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
06.05.2023 Ajax Ajax 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
18.09.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 2-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
08.05.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-2 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
2-0
AWAY Ajax
2.03 xG 0.73
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
303 Passes 491
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
23 Box Touches 20
9 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar beat Ajax 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 37% — and on the day AZ Alkmaar made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 40% of the ball to Ajax's 60%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 2.03 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.83 for Ajax.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?

AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Ajax in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 35%, draw 27%, Ajax 37%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ajax)
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