AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AZ Alkmaar v Ajax — Team-Based Signals
AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-1
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
0-0
HT 0-0
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
2-1
HT 2-1
Ajax
HOL
2-2
HT 0-1
Ajax
HOL
AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Ajax — Actual Match Statistics
AZ Alkmaar beat Ajax 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 37% — and on the day AZ Alkmaar made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 40% of the ball to Ajax's 60%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 2.03 to 0.73.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.83 for Ajax.
What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Ajax in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 35%, draw 27%, Ajax 37%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.