AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.6
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.23
2-3 Goals
36%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
3.01
6+ Goals
15%
9.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.5
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
12%
4.47
X/2
9%
7.75
X/X
16%
5.51
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
12%
5.35
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.3pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.2pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.9pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.48/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/2.22
+17% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
379 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
12.4 Crosses 16.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ajax
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.29 xG 1.90
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
301 Passes 496
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 33
10 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2023 Ajax Ajax 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
06.05.2023 Ajax Ajax 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
18.09.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 2-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
08.05.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-2 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
03.03.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0-2 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOK
12.12.2021 Ajax Ajax 1-2 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
2-0
AWAY Ajax
0.51 xG 0.92
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 1
367 Passes 522
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar saw off Ajax 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 43% of the ball to Ajax's 57%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.51 to 0.92 — the balance of chances actually favoured Ajax.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.17 for Ajax.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?

AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 42%, draw 29%, Ajax 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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