Excelsior 1-2 Vitesse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 25 Feb 2024

Excelsior
1-2 HT 0-0
Vitesse
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Excelsior vs Vitesse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.97
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
27%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.74
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
19%
4.66
X/2
10%
7.05
X/X
12%
5.25
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.15
2/2
12%
4.86
2/X
5%
13.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
46%
+2.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-1.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Excelsior v Vitesse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitesse EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -15%
1.52/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.45
-13% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
17.6 Crosses 18.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Excelsior vs Vitesse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Vitesse
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.76 xG 1.94
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 11
307 Passes 351
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 39
15 Crosses 32
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Vitesse Vitesse 0-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
22.04.2023 Vitesse Vitesse 0-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
12.08.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 3-1 HT 2-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
09.02.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOK
18.01.2019 Vitesse Vitesse 3-2 HT 2-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
20.10.2018 Excelsior Excelsior 2-0 HT 1-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL

Excelsior 1-2 Vitesse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
1-2
AWAY Vitesse
1.44 xG 1.36
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 11
286 Passes 372
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 28
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs Vitesse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitesse nicked a narrow win over Excelsior 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Excelsior at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Excelsior had 46% of the ball to Vitesse's 54%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.44 to 1.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Excelsior and 0.83 for Vitesse.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs Vitesse?

Excelsior 1-2 Vitesse in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs Vitesse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 49%, draw 24%, Vitesse 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Excelsior) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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