Albacete 3-2 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 14 Jan 2026

📅14/01/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
11%
7.18
Draw
21%
4.95
Away Pick
68%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.63
Over
56%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
24%
5.77
2-3
38%
2.04
4-5
26%
2.5
6+
12%
5.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.77 — our 24% vs market 12.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
3%
1/2
10%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
29%
X/X
11%
2/1
3%
2/2
29%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Real Madrid win — 68%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
11%
Home Win
11%
+0.1pp
21%
Draw
17%
+3.1pp
68%
Away Win
71%
-3.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
34%
+9.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
66%
-9.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albacete The Market 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid The Market 75%
+54% / +54% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
0.99/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.98/1.09
+36% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -39%
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
274 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 491 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.7
Crosses 18.9
Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albacete
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Real Madrid
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
03.04.2005 Albacete Albacete 1-2 HT 1-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
14.11.2004 Real Madrid Real Madrid 6-1 HT 3-1 Albacete Albacete İS1
03.04.2004 Albacete Albacete 1-2 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
23.11.2003 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 1-1 Albacete Albacete İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albacete
3-2
AWAY Real Madrid
0.70 xG 1.42
22% Ball Possession 78%
12 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 11
150 Passes 652
75% Pass Accuracy 90%
7 Box Touches 35
7 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Albacete vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albacete squeezed past Real Madrid 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Real Madrid carried 68% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Albacete had 22% of the ball to Real Madrid's 78%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 0.70 to 1.42 — on chances, Real Madrid could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Albacete and 3.00 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Albacete vs Real Madrid?

Albacete 3-2 Real Madrid in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 14/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albacete vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Albacete 11%, draw 21%, Real Madrid 68%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSPK More Spain - Copa del Rey
14 Jan 2026
23:00 Real Betis vs Elche Analysis →
23:00 Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Analysis →