Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Deportivo Alaves v Rayo Vallecano — Team-Based Signals
Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Deportivo Alaves 2-0 Rayo Vallecano — Actual Match Statistics
Deportivo Alaves got the better of Rayo Vallecano 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Deportivo Alaves found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 51% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 49%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.92 to 0.97.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rayo Vallecano led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 1.00 for Rayo Vallecano.
What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Deportivo Alaves 2-0 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 14/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 39%, draw 26%, Rayo Vallecano 35%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Alaves), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.