Deportivo Alaves 0-2 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.48
Over 2.5
35%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.16
No
60%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2.13
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
5.68
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.02
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
14.4
X/1
20%
4.52
X/2
12%
7.45
X/X
12%
3.52
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
12%
6.49
2/X
6%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.1pp
28%
Draw
31%
-3.1pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.2pp
65%
Under 2.5
64%
+1.0pp
35%
Over 2.5
36%
-1.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.4pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
1.39/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.22
-25% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +41%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
280 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 74%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
23.1 Crosses 16.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.66 xG 1.51
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
222 Passes 335
68% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
10.03.2024 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
15.09.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
16.04.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
18.12.2021 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
28.01.2019 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
0-2
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.49 xG 0.59
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
318 Passes 241
76% Pass Accuracy 69%
34 Box Touches 9
39 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano saw off Deportivo Alaves 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Alaves at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 56% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 44%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.49 to 0.59 — the balance of chances actually favoured Deportivo Alaves.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rayo Vallecano led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 1.00 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?

Deportivo Alaves 0-2 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 43%, draw 28%, Rayo Vallecano 29%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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