Real Madrid 3-2 Leganes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 29 Mar 2025

Real Madrid
3-2 HT 1-2
Leganes
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Real Madrid vs Leganes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.22
Draw
20%
5.71
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.59
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.6
2-3 Goals
39%
2.04
4-5 Goals
26%
2.58
6+ Goals
13%
5.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.38
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
4%
24.2
X/1
25%
3.89
X/2
4%
24.65
X/X
10%
9.46
2/1
10%
22.0
2/2
9%
21.05
2/X
6%
28.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
77%
-13.7pp
20%
Draw
14%
+5.3pp
17%
Away Win
8%
+8.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.6pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Leganes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Leganes EU Bookmakers 11%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
2.37/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.72
+13% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +18%
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
508 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 73%
40.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.8
17.7 Crosses 12.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Real Madrid vs Leganes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Leganes
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.14 xG 1.08
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
537 Passes 282
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
36 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.02.2025 Leganes Leganes 2-3 HT 1-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
24.11.2024 Leganes Leganes 0-3 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
19.07.2020 Leganes Leganes 2-2 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
30.10.2019 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-0 HT 3-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
15.04.2019 Leganes Leganes 1-1 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
16.01.2019 Leganes Leganes 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK

Real Madrid 3-2 Leganes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
3-2
AWAY Leganes
2.91 xG 2.64
71% Ball Possession 29%
24 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
554 Passes 184
91% Pass Accuracy 74%
49 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Leganes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid edged past Leganes 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Real Madrid had 71% of the ball to Leganes's 29%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 2.91 to 2.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Real Madrid and 1.00 for Leganes.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Leganes?

Real Madrid 3-2 Leganes in the Spain - Primera Liga on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Leganes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 64%, draw 20%, Leganes 17%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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