Deportivo Alaves 1-0 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 10 Mar 2024

Deportivo Alaves
1-0 HT 1-0
Rayo Vallecano
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.51
Over 2.5
31%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.09
No
65%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
41%
2.26
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
15%
5.44
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.26 — our 41% vs market 37.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.95
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
20%
4.29
X/2
10%
7.18
X/X
18%
3.58
2/1
5%
32.5
2/2
11%
6.11
2/X
6%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.4pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.8pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+1.5pp
69%
Under 2.5
62%
+6.1pp
31%
Over 2.5
38%
-6.1pp
35%
BTTS Yes
44%
-9.3pp
65%
BTTS No
56%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Deportivo Alaves v Rayo Vallecano — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.56/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.29
-14% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +23%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
276 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
24.1 Crosses 16.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.1

Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.73 xG 1.60
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
228 Passes 307
68% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 27
22 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.09.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
16.04.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
18.12.2021 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
28.01.2019 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
22.09.2018 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-5 HT 1-2 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
15.02.2009 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-2 HT 0-2 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS2

Deportivo Alaves 1-0 Rayo Vallecano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
1-0
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
0.61 xG 0.64
33% Ball Possession 67%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
200 Passes 496
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Alaves nicked a narrow win over Rayo Vallecano 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Deportivo Alaves as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (65%) came in.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 33% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 67%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.61 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rayo Vallecano led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 1.33 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?

Deportivo Alaves 1-0 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 43%, draw 31%, Rayo Vallecano 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Alaves), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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