Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Deportivo Alaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.48
Over 2.5
32%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
40%
2.18
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
5.36
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.18 — our 40% vs market 38.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.16
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
12%
4.64
X/2
10%
6.93
X/X
17%
3.57
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
11%
5.84
2/X
8%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.2pp
32%
Draw
31%
+0.9pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.2pp
68%
Under 2.5
64%
+4.0pp
32%
Over 2.5
36%
-4.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.0pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.35/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.44
-14% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
313 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 71%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
26.4 Crosses 18.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.43 xG 0.74
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 Passes 229
77% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.03.2025 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-2 HT 0-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
26.10.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
10.03.2024 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
15.09.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
16.04.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
18.12.2021 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
1-0
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.18 xG 0.97
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
340 Passes 266
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Alaves 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Rayo Vallecano as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 54% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves's 46%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.18 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rayo Vallecano had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.33 for Deportivo Alaves.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alaves?

Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 42%, draw 32%, Deportivo Alaves 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rayo Vallecano), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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