Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 Atlante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.48
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
47%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.56
Over 2.5
51%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
2.19
No
44%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
14%
1/X
3%
X/1
7%
X/2
22%
X/X
13%
2/1
3%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
19%
+10.6pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.0pp
47%
Away Win
55%
-7.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
60%
-10.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
40%
+10.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
42%
+14.4pp
44%
BTTS No
58%
-14.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlante EU Bookmakers 58%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.29/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.23/1.10
+16% / +143% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +91% / -33%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
254 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Atlante
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 4
06.08.2023 Atlante Atlante 2-2 HT 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
31.03.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlante Atlante MEK2
29.08.2022 Atlante Atlante 1-1 HT 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
27.03.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 HT 1-0 Atlante Atlante MEK2
07.11.2021 Atlante Atlante 1-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
08.03.2021 Atlante Atlante 5-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Atlante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlante nicked a narrow win over Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atlante as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlante led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 1.67 for Atlante.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Atlante?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 Atlante in the Mexico - Primera A on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Atlante?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atlante win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 30%, draw 23%, Atlante 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlante), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atlante) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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