Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 Baltika Kaliningrad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.72
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
29%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.16
No
48%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.48
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
4.8
6+ Goals
10%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.49
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✓
10%
15.45
X/1
19%
3.88
X/2
9%
8.24
X/X
11%
4.2
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
15%
7.06
2/X
8%
16.2
Value flag · 1/X at 15.45 — our 10% vs market 3.7%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
54%
-13.7pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.7pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+10.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
42%
+9.4pp
48%
BTTS No
58%
-9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +39% / +39%
1.90/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.20/0.99
+5% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +92%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
348 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
1W-3D-0L
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
0.94 xG 0.78
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
222 Passes 287
66% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.11.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 2-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
03.09.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-2 HT 3-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS
25.09.2019 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 1-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
26.09.2018 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 2-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
1-1
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Baltika Kaliningrad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow and Baltika Kaliningrad couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiv Moscow at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 47% of the ball to Baltika Kaliningrad's 53%, shots finished 13-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow had the better of it with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 1.75 for Baltika Kaliningrad.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russia - Cup on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 41%, draw 30%, Baltika Kaliningrad 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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