Spartak Moskova 3-1 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
24%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.43
Over 2.5
53%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.26
2-3 Goals
40%
1.98
4-5 Goals
26%
2.7
6+ Goals
11%
6.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.96
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.4
X/1
18%
3.93
X/2
6%
10.9
X/X
11%
6.07
2/1
7%
21.0
2/2
12%
7.93
2/X
6%
15.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-12.7pp
22%
Draw
19%
+2.6pp
25%
Away Win
14%
+10.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 17%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
2.80/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/2.49
+66% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -29%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
432 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
3W-0D-3L
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.87 xG 1.10
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
380 Passes 265
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
37 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.11.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-0 HT 1-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
23.07.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-2 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
18.03.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-0 HT 2-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
31.07.2022 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 4-1 HT 3-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
14.03.2020 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-3 HT 1-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
29.09.2019 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-2 HT 0-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
3-1
AWAY FK Orenburg
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova saw off FK Orenburg 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Spartak Moskova as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 58% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 42%, shots finished 15-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Spartak Moskova and 1.50 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs FK Orenburg?

Spartak Moskova 3-1 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Cup on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 54%, draw 22%, FK Orenburg 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Moskova), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✓ Over 2.5
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