St. Pauli 1-0 Hoffenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.79
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.9
6+ Goals
8%
18.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.18
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
14%
5.01
X/2 EV+ ✗
18%
6.63
X/X
13%
4.16
2/1
5%
28.0
2/2
10%
4.91
2/X
7%
13.3
Value flag · X/2 at 6.63 — our 18% vs market 11.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.5pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.3pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+4.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.1pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 32%
-14% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.81/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.62
-49% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
305 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 77%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
19.7 Crosses 17.6
0.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.94 xG 0.75
32% Ball Possession 68%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
220 Passes 522
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
9 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 41
1 Yellow Cards 0
02.11.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 0-2 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
23.01.2011 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-2 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
28.08.2010 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-1 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
16.04.2008 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL2
02.11.2007 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
1-0
AWAY Hoffenheim
2.01 xG 0.17
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 0
11 Corners 2
272 Passes 376
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Hoffenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli squeezed past Hoffenheim 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day St. Pauli made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, St. Pauli had 44% of the ball to Hoffenheim's 56%, shots finished 10-4, expected goals 2.01 to 0.17 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold St. Pauli's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, St. Pauli had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for St. Pauli and 1.00 for Hoffenheim.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Hoffenheim?

St. Pauli 1-0 Hoffenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Hoffenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 39%, draw 27%, Hoffenheim 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pauli), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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