La Louvière 2-1 Lierse Kempenzonen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.49
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
25%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
2.96
6+ Goals
10%
9.41
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 25% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
63%
-15.4pp
28%
Draw
21%
+6.8pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+8.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME La Louvière EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Lierse Kempenzonen EU Bookmakers 19%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
2.17/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.41
+30% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 72%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
20.1 Crosses 18.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME La Louvière
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Lierse Kempenzonen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.29 xG 1.43
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
153 Passes 265
62% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.10.2024 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen 1-2 HT 1-1 La Louvière La Louvière BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME La Louvière
2-1
AWAY Lierse Kempenzonen
3.37 xG 0.37
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
268 Passes 178
74% Pass Accuracy 67%
47 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH La Louvière vs Lierse Kempenzonen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

La Louvière nicked a narrow win over Lierse Kempenzonen 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had La Louvière as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, La Louvière had 56% of the ball to Lierse Kempenzonen's 44%, shots finished 16-3, expected goals 3.37 to 0.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold La Louvière's control.

What was the final score of La Louvière vs Lierse Kempenzonen?

La Louvière 2-1 Lierse Kempenzonen in the Belgium - 1st Division on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for La Louvière vs Lierse Kempenzonen?

Before kick-off our model rated a La Louvière win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split La Louvière 47%, draw 28%, Lierse Kempenzonen 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (La Louvière) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (La Louvière) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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