Almere City 1-1 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 Mar 2025

Almere City
1-1 HT 1-1
NAC Breda
📅14/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Almere City vs NAC Breda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
1.86
Over 2.5
59%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.7
No
42%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.19
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
28%
3.45
6+ Goals
10%
13.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
3.07
1/2
4%
33.0
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
11%
5.1
X/2
13%
6.81
X/X
9%
4.48
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
26.0
2/2
14%
4.83
2/X
8%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 6% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+1.2pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.7pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
50%
-8.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
50%
+8.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
55%
+3.1pp
42%
BTTS No
45%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Almere City v NAC Breda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almere City EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -17%
1.22/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/2.18
-26% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / -45%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
18.1 Crosses 15.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.3

Almere City vs NAC Breda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almere City
1W-1D-4L
AWAY NAC Breda
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.76 xG 0.87
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
372 Passes 258
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.11.2024 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 1-0 Almere City Almere City HOL
07.05.2023 Almere City Almere City 0-2 HT 0-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
16.12.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-1 HT 0-1 Almere City Almere City HOL2
16.04.2022 Almere City Almere City 1-2 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
10.12.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 0-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2
01.02.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 4-0 HT 2-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2

Almere City 1-1 NAC Breda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almere City
1-1
AWAY NAC Breda
1.52 xG 1.06
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
270 Passes 284
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Almere City vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almere City and NAC Breda couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Almere City at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Almere City had 48% of the ball to NAC Breda's 52%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.52 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Almere City and 1.67 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Almere City vs NAC Breda?

Almere City 1-1 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almere City vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almere City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Almere City 44%, draw 23%, NAC Breda 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Almere City), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Almere City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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