NAC Breda 1-0 Almere City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
29%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.43
2-3 Goals
34%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.54
6+ Goals
8%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 33% vs market 24.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.24
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.55
X/1
18%
4.29
X/2
14%
12.25
X/X
8%
5.79
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
9%
9.76
2/X
7%
18.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-7.9pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.7pp
29%
Away Win
18%
+10.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.7pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Almere City EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
3.17/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.60
+64% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +56%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
387 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 69%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
20.1 Crosses 16.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Almere City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.80 xG 0.84
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
258 Passes 371
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.05.2023 Almere City Almere City 0-2 HT 0-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
16.12.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-1 HT 0-1 Almere City Almere City HOL2
16.04.2022 Almere City Almere City 1-2 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
10.12.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 0-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2
01.02.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 4-0 HT 2-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2
23.10.2020 Almere City Almere City 2-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-0
AWAY Almere City
0.74 xG 0.43
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
274 Passes 329
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Almere City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda nicked a narrow win over Almere City 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had NAC Breda as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, NAC Breda had 47% of the ball to Almere City's 53%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.74 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NAC Breda and 0.83 for Almere City.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Almere City?

NAC Breda 1-0 Almere City in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Almere City?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 50%, draw 21%, Almere City 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NAC Breda), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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