Groningen 2-0 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.59
Over 2.5
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.5
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
4.88
6+ Goals
10%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.12
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.55
X/1
16%
4.68
X/2
14%
8.09
X/X
9%
4.41
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
9%
6.74
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
17.2
Value flag · 2/X at 17.2 — our 11% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.3pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Groningen EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.28/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.46
-23% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
343 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 72%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
21.6 Crosses 20.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Groningen
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Willem II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 0.69
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
393 Passes 310
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.04.2024 Willem II Willem II 1-1 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL2
19.12.2023 Willem II Willem II 1-3 HT 0-1 Groningen Groningen HOK
27.08.2023 Groningen Groningen 0-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
26.02.2022 Groningen Groningen 1-0 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
18.09.2021 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 2-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
14.01.2021 Willem II Willem II 2-3 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Groningen
2-0
AWAY Willem II
1.26 xG 0.31
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 1
391 Passes 398
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 10
10 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Groningen vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Groningen saw off Willem II 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Groningen as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Groningen had 49% of the ball to Willem II's 51%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.26 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Groningen had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Groningen and 1.00 for Willem II.

What was the final score of Groningen vs Willem II?

Groningen 2-0 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Groningen vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Groningen 45%, draw 27%, Willem II 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Groningen), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Groningen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
30 Nov 2024
18:30 NAC Breda vs Almere City Analysis →
22:00 Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard Analysis →
23:00 PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam Analysis →