PEC Zwolle 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
43%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.82
Over 2.5
56%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.18
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.76
6+ Goals
11%
15.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.76 — our 26% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.27
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
6%
15.4
X/1
9%
6.17
X/2
11%
5.93
X/X
10%
5.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
34.0
2/2
25%
4.03
2/X
6%
15.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 7% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.7pp
43%
Away Win
37%
+6.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
51%
-7.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
49%
+7.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 40%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +20%
1.51/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.29
+15% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
340 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
22.1 Crosses 17.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PEC Zwolle
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.47 xG 1.59
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
396 Passes 268
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 19
29 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2024 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
12.08.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-2 HT 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
11.05.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 HT 2-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
22.09.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-1 HT 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
03.04.2021 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 3-2 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
26.09.2020 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 4-0 HT 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PEC Zwolle
1-0
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
1.13 xG 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 7
379 Passes 366
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PEC Zwolle nicked a narrow win over Sparta Rotterdam 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sparta Rotterdam at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PEC Zwolle had 50% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 50%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.13 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Rotterdam led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.33 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?

PEC Zwolle 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 34%, draw 23%, Sparta Rotterdam 43%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
30 Nov 2024
18:30 NAC Breda vs Almere City Analysis →
20:45 Groningen vs Willem II Analysis →
22:00 Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard Analysis →