Willem II 1-1 Groningen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Apr 2024

Willem II
1-1 HT 0-0
Groningen
📅26/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Willem II vs Groningen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
40%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.32
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.56
6+ Goals
12%
14.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.11
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
27.0
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
13%
5.9
X/2
14%
5.1
X/X
11%
4.66
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
17%
3.35
2/X
9%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.0 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
40%
Away Win
40%
+0.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.9pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Willem II v Groningen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Groningen EU Bookmakers 43%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
0.91/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.30
+2% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
350 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 78%
13.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
19.2 Crosses 19.7
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Willem II vs Groningen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Groningen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.70 xG 1.31
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
327 Passes 392
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.12.2023 Willem II Willem II 1-3 HT 0-1 Groningen Groningen HOK
27.08.2023 Groningen Groningen 0-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
26.02.2022 Groningen Groningen 1-0 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
18.09.2021 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 2-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
14.01.2021 Willem II Willem II 2-3 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
29.11.2020 Groningen Groningen 1-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL

Willem II 1-1 Groningen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
1-1
AWAY Groningen
0.10 xG 0.77
40% Ball Possession 60%
4 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
243 Passes 405
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
8 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Willem II vs Groningen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II and Groningen shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Willem II had 40% of the ball to Groningen's 60%, shots finished 4-12, expected goals 0.10 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Groningen led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Willem II and 1.50 for Groningen.

What was the final score of Willem II vs Groningen?

Willem II 1-1 Groningen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs Groningen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Willem II 33%, draw 27%, Groningen 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Groningen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Groningen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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