De Graafschap 3-0 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.96
Over 2.5
63%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.39
No
40%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.77
2-3 Goals
37%
2.16
4-5 Goals
29%
2.49
6+ Goals
16%
5.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.16
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
9%
14.0
X/1
13%
4.54
X/2
8%
9.13
X/X
9%
6.98
2/1 EV+ ✗
16%
18.75
2/2
13%
5.55
2/X
6%
14.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.75 — our 16% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.5pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.9pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+3.6pp
37%
Under 2.5
30%
+7.4pp
63%
Over 2.5
70%
-7.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
68%
-7.5pp
40%
BTTS No
32%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 28%
-6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +13%
1.79/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.63
-7% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
404 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
25.5 Crosses 14.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
4W-1D-1L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.76 xG 0.61
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
401 Passes 272
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
31 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.09.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
05.05.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-1 HT 1-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
06.01.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
18.03.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-3 HT 1-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
13.08.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-3 HT 1-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
13.02.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-0 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
3-0
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.00 xG 0.58
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 2
396 Passes 368
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap ran out comfortable winners over MVV Maastricht 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (63%) landed while both teams to score (60%) missed.

On the day, De Graafschap had 51% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 49%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.00 to 0.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for De Graafschap and 1.33 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs MVV Maastricht?

De Graafschap 3-0 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 48%, draw 24%, MVV Maastricht 28%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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