VVV-Venlo 2-3 Den Bosch — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
34%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.76
No
57%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.49
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
3.41
6+ Goals
8%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 33% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.3
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.25
X/1
12%
3.97
X/2
9%
8.49
X/X
14%
5.33
2/1
6%
22.7
2/2
16%
6.51
2/X
7%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
53%
-13.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
34%
Away Win
23%
+10.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.2pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 26%
-10% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
1.54/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.39
-21% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
348 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
22.7 Crosses 18.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VVV-Venlo
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Den Bosch
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.17 xG 0.89
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
331 Passes 317
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
20.10.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 1-2 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
10.03.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 4-0 HT 2-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
19.11.2022 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-2 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
26.03.2022 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-0 HT 0-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
10.09.2021 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-1 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
27.10.2020 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 4-2 HT 0-1 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VVV-Venlo
2-3
AWAY Den Bosch
1.14 xG 1.91
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
507 Passes 219
87% Pass Accuracy 70%
30 Box Touches 19
38 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH VVV-Venlo vs Den Bosch
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Den Bosch squeezed past VVV-Venlo 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Den Bosch made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, VVV-Venlo had 66% of the ball to Den Bosch's 34%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.14 to 1.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, VVV-Venlo had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for VVV-Venlo and 0.67 for Den Bosch.

What was the final score of VVV-Venlo vs Den Bosch?

VVV-Venlo 2-3 Den Bosch in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VVV-Venlo vs Den Bosch?

Before kick-off our model rated a VVV-Venlo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split VVV-Venlo 40%, draw 26%, Den Bosch 34%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (VVV-Venlo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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