Ajax II 1-1 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Apr 2024

Ajax II
1-1 HT 1-1
Roda
📅26/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
39%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.59
Over 2.5
51%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.43
No
48%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
5.86
2-3 Goals
39%
2.05
4-5 Goals
23%
2.6
6+ Goals
10%
5.93
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.86 — our 28% vs market 12.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.31
1/2
9%
20.05
1/X
10%
13.3
X/1
14%
8.52
X/2
11%
4.68
X/X
9%
6.21
2/1
5%
33.0
2/2
20%
2.33
2/X
7%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
26%
+7.5pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.3pp
39%
Away Win
51%
-11.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
35%
+13.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
65%
-13.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
66%
-14.0pp
48%
BTTS No
34%
+14.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax II EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda EU Bookmakers 56%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.23/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/0.98
+9% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -10%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 77%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
11.5 Crosses 18.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax II
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Roda
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.09 xG 1.89
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
453 Passes 277
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2023 Roda Roda 2-1 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
23.01.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 1-2 Roda Roda HOL2
12.08.2022 Roda Roda 1-0 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
08.04.2022 Roda Roda 2-2 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
22.11.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 2-1 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
12.03.2021 Roda Roda 2-2 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax II
1-1
AWAY Roda
0.57 xG 1.08
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
344 Passes 389
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 25
5 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ajax II vs Roda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax II and Roda shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match split (34% / 27% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Ajax II had 47% of the ball to Roda's 53%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.57 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ajax II and 1.67 for Roda.

What was the final score of Ajax II vs Roda?

Ajax II 1-1 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax II vs Roda?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ajax II 34%, draw 27%, Roda 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Roda), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roda) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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